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09/05/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are no ifs, ands or buts about it, when a Football Championship Subdivision team upsets a major-conference team, it deserves to be in the spotlight as much as any other team across the nation.
Think a No. 14 team upsetting a three seed in the early rounds of March Madness. That always gets your attention when your bracket starts to fall apart.
Jacksonville State? Yes, the Gamecocks were all over any highlight show that you might have watched this weekend following their thrilling, 49-48, double- overtime rally past Ole Miss and a stunned Houston Nutt, who won the Eddie Robinson Award as the FCS coach of the year back at Murray State in 1995. Murray State, of course, now plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference as Jacksonville State.
North Dakota State? Well, the Bison's 6-3 win at Kansas was the polar opposite of Jacksonville State's on the scoreboard, but it left an FBS coach as equally stunned, first-year Jayhawks skipper Turner Gill. Maybe his squad should have taken even a closer look at North Dakota State than they did beforehand because since the Bison moved to the FCS in 2006 they are an impressive 4-3 against Football Bowl Subdivision teams, beating Minnesota, Ball State, Central Michigan, and, now, Kansas (Turner, this certainly isn't the University of Buffalo anymore).
The reality, though, is that FCS teams aren't supposed to beat FBS teams. It's tougher to do in football than in most other collegiate sports.
So the 2-38 record that FCS teams posted against the big boys this weekend can be filed away with the guaranteed paychecks that come with playing these games.
There will be plenty more FCS-FBS matchups next weekend before the two divisions basically go their own ways.
What shouldn't be lost amid the deserved hoopla for Jacksonville State and North Dakota State is that plenty of FCS-versus-FCS games started to shape the season.
William & Mary, the No. 4 team in the country and an FCS semifinalist last season, has already lost a conference game. Now that should get your attention.
Of course, don't be overly surprised by the result because in CAA Football - the FCS' dominant conference - there is a March Madness quality in the way its teams routinely knock each other off.
Massachusetts pulled the upset of the Tribe, 27-23 as Jonathan Hernandez totaled 201 yards of total offense (132 rushing and 69 receiving) and rushed for a touchdown, and Northeastern transfer John Griffin rushed for two touchdowns, including a 5-yarder with 3:23 left to erase the Minutemen's 23-21 deficit. Linebacker Tyler Holmes' interception with 2:05 left then clinched the upset.
"It's just a testament to the team, these guys and who they are and where they have been through the winter, through the spring, the summer and the fall," Minutemen coach Kevin Morris said. "We had a long, hot preseason and every time I asked them to get something done, they got it done. Certainly today that character came out and they responded with tremendous form."
"I felt in a lot of respects we played very well," said William & Mary coach Jimmye Laycock, who held out star linebacker Jake Trantin, "but we did not do what we needed to do defensively in a lot of situations, as far as third- and fourth-down conversions. We let them convert."
The CAA's other eye-opening score in Week 1 was Maine's 3-0 loss to Albany of the Northeast Conference. Maine came into the season believing a healthier squad will turn around last year's 5-6 record, but the shutout loss might have been an ominous sign. The visiting Great Danes made Herb Glass' 21-yard field goal midway through the first quarter stand up.
Speaking of standing up, the crowd was on its feet in Springfield, Mo., as Missouri State roared past Eastern Kentucky, 31-9, in one of the better wins for fifth-year coach Terry Allen, and one seemingly worthy of getting the Bears into The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25. Junior Chris Douglas' 86-yard touchdown run in the second quarter highlighted the win, and quarterback Cody Kirby rushed for a pair of TDs.
Among the impressive road wins, Jacksonville tripped Old Dominion, 35-25, behind its offensive stars, quarterback Josh McGregor (24 of 34 for 311 yards and three touchdowns), running back Rudell Small (118 rushing yards and two TDs) and wide receiver Josh Philpart (115 receiving yards and two TDs). Also, Lehigh went to Des Moines, Iowa, and left Drake a 28-14 winner behind Jay Campbell's three rushing touchdowns. The Mountain Hawks had not boarded a plane for a game since going to Furman for an NCAA quarterfinal in 2001.
COULD THIS WEEK'S NO. 1 BE 0-1?
It will be interesting to see where Villanova is ranked on Monday. It's possible the defending FCS champion could remain No. 1 despite a 31-24 loss to Temple on Friday. The Wildcats jump-started their 14-1 campaign a year ago by edging Temple, but this year's game was a toss-up, with a slight edge to the Owls from the FBS.
"I told the guys I have never been more proud of a Villanova team," head coach Andy Talley said after the loss. "We can go far as a team this year and I am happy and excited about that."
Second-ranked Montana, which has lost in the last two FCS championship games, including 23-21 to Villanova last year, drilled Western State, 73-2, would stand to surpass Villanova if there is a change atop the poll. Third-ranked Appalachian State barely got past Chattanooga, 42-41; fourth-ranked William & Mary lost to UMass, 27-23; and fifth-ranked Southern Illinois brought out the medical examiner in a 70-7 win over Quincy.
MANY HAPPY RETURNS
Montana expected to drill Western State and did with nine touchdown receptions. Oops, make that a combined five for Griz quarterbacks Andrew Selle and Justin Roper, and four interceptions that the defense returned for touchdowns, tying an NCAA single-game record.
Jordan Tripp (22 yards), Erik Stoll (34) and Trumaine Johnson (18) scored on short returns in the first quarter, then Sean Murray had the shortest one of all, 14 yards in the fourth quarter.
"We didn't have a lot of sustained drives, and that was disappointing. But thanks to the return team, we didn't need to," Montana coach Robin Pflugrad said after winning his first game in Missoula.
Overall, the Griz defense allowed only 73 yards on 51 plays.
COACHING DEBUTS
Pflugrad was one of the small handful of winners among FCS coaches who made their debuts this weekend. The new coaches were 5-11 heading into Stump Mitchell's debut for Southern on Sunday against Delaware State.
Besides Pflugrad, the winners were Bethune-Cookman's Brian Jenkins (70-10 over Edward Waters) Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken (48-3 over Savannah State and debuting coach Julius Dixon), Tennessee State's Rod Reed (27-14 over Alabama A&M) and Western Illinois' Mark Hendrickson (45-0 over Valparaiso and debuting coach Dale Carlsson).
PRESLEY DELIVERS, BUT WHEW ...
Few players in the FCS entered the season under the microscope as much as Appalachian State quarterback DeAndre Presley, who has replaced two-time Walter Payton Award winner Armanti Edwards.
App State played it a little too close for comfort, but Presley got the thumb's up by rallying the Mountaineers from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to a 42-41 win at Chattanooga.
Presley, a redshirt junior, completed 22-of-29 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns, rushed for 25 yards and two other touchdowns, and scored a TD on a "reception" that was the oddest play of the game.
With the game tied 35-35 in the fourth quarter, Chattanooga jumped offsides on 3rd-and-1 from the Mocs' 29 yard line, giving Presley and the Mountaineers a free play. Presley threw a quick pass to wide receiver Matt Cline, who was drilled by defender Chris Lewis-Harris and fumbled the ball. Presley picked up the loose ball and followed blocked into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown from 33 yards out.
Statistically, Cline collected the reception and Presley the 33 receiving yards.
THIS, THAT AND THE OTHER
College football is old hat to Georgia State coach Bill Curry, but his new program won its first-ever game, 41-7 over NAIA program Shorter before an announced crowd of 30,237 in the Georgia Dome. QB Drew Little threw for two touchdowns. "I've never been more proud of a group of young men than I am of this group," said Curry, the former head coach at Georgia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky ... The most scintillating performance in a losing cause belonged to Eastern Washington junior Taiwan Jones, who collected a career-high 322 all- purpose yards on just 18 touches in the Eagles' 49-24 loss at Nevada. The All- America rushed 12 times for 145 yards, caught two passes for 92 yards and returned four kickoffs for 85 yards. He turned a Bo Levi Mitchell pass into an 82-yard catch-and- run for EWU's first touchdown of the season ... True freshman running back Zach Bauman was lost in the shadow of All-America quarterback Michael Herrick during the preseason, but in a 48-0 win over Western New Mexico he announced his arrival by rushing for 167 yards and four touchdowns ... Liberty had three receivers surpass 100 yards in a 52-7 win over St. Francis (Pa.): Chris Summers (129), B.J. Hayes (100) and Pat Kelly (115). Quarterbacks Mike Brown and Tyler Brennan combined for 452 yards and six touchdowns ... Senior linebacker Brandon Wiggins of Elon collected 19 tackles against Duke and senior linebacker Jeffrey Williams of Gardner-Webb had 18 against Brevard .. Speaking of defensive dominance, The Citadel was in on seven sacks in a 56-14 win over Chowan. Erik Clanton collected two solo sacks and assisted on two more, while fellow defensive lineman Derek Douglas had two solo sacks ... Led by North Dakota State's win at Kansas, Missouri Valley Football Conference teams won six of seven games.
SNEAK PEEK
The key FCS game next weekend is No. 9 South Dakota State's trip across the country to No. 16 Delaware. Coach John Stiegelmeier's Jackrabbits were one of only three Top 25 teams not to open their season this weekend (No. 14 Northern Iowa and No. 23 Penn were the other two). Delaware and All-America quarterback Pat Devlin tuned up by coasting past Division II West Chester, 31-0.
Among FCS-FBS matchups, Southern Illinois will travel to Illinois, New Hampshire visits Pittsburgh, James Madison will go to Virginia Tech and Montana State will visit Washington State.
<< Davies wins for third time in Austria
Wiener Neustadt, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Laura Davies carded a two-under 70
Sunday to earn a one-stroke win at the Uniqa Ladies Golf Open.
Davies, who won this title for the third time, finished at 11-under-par 205.
The victory was Davi
<< Orioles recall Tillman to make start
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles recalled pitcher Chris
Tillman to start Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Rays.
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2/3 innings to the Rays
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Felix Hernandez will attempt to atone for a recent loss to
the Cleveland Indians and help the Seattle Mariners earn a split of a four-
game series with that above-mentioned opponent when the ace pitcher toes the
rubber this a
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is starting to appear as if the Cincinnati Reds are
headed towards their first National League Central title since 1995.
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Clijsters breezes into quarterfinals in New York >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Kim Clijsters
needed just 59 minutes to post a straight set victory over former World No. 1
Ana Ivanovic in fourth round action at the 2010 U.S. Open.
Clijsters, the second
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Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers outfielder and AL MVP
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Hamilton made a catch in centerfield near the wall in
2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 5th >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Slovenia 87, Australia 58
Turkey vs. France, 2 p.m.
Slovenia routs Australia to reach quarterfinals >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jaka Lakovic scored 19 points in
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World Championships.
Primoz Brezec added 12 points for Slovenia, which will play
MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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