Cyclones blow into Waco seeking upset of Bears

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/13/2012 - Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The tie for third place in the Big 12 Conference Standings will be broken tonight, as the Iowa State Cyclones square off with the Baylor Bears at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas.

The Cyclones have played Baylor 20 times leading up to tonight's clash, and Iowa State leads the all-time series 12-8. As mentioned, the Cyclones and Bears are tied for third place in the Big 12 standings with identical 8-4 league ledgers, two games behind both Kansas and Missouri.

Iowa State won its fourth game in five tries on Saturday as it handled Texas A&M on its home floor, 69-46. The decision improved ISU's overall record to 18-7. The Cyclones were able to knock down 10 three-pointers in the contest, which put them in a tie for seventh in the nation in three-pointers made per game (8.9). Head coach Fred Hoiberg had to be pleased with his squad's dominant 38-22 rebounding advantage. Iowa State has the fifth-best scoring offense in the Big 12 (73.8 ppg), and the seventh-best scoring defense (66.0 ppg).

Royce White is the go-to-guy for Iowa State, and he is the only player in the country to lead his team in points (13.2 ppg), rebounds (9.4 rpg), assists (4.8 apg), steals (1.2 spg), and blocks (1.1 bpg). Chris Allen is ISU's second-leading scorer with 12.7 ppg, and he has been deadly from three-point range, going 17-of-29 from downtown in his last four games. Scott Christopherson and Chris Babb both produce for the Cyclones as well, and both demand extra attention when out on the perimeter.

Baylor head coach Scott Drew can't be criticized too harshly for his team's current two-game slide, as it went up against the talented Kansas Jayhawks prior to suffering a 72-57 loss to the Missouri Tigers on Saturday. Baylor lost to Kansas and Missouri in consecutive games earlier this season as well, which has contributed all of the losses to its 21-4 overall record. BU shot the ball poorly against Mizzou, as it connected on only 36.2 percent of its field goal attempts, which included a dismal 4-of-17 showing from three-point range, while the Tigers were able to hit 14-of-28 from beyond the arc to run away with the victory. Baylor is third in the Big 12 in scoring margin (+11.4).

Baylor has a deep attack as five players average double figures in the scoring column. The Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, Perry Jones III leads the team with 13.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Freshman forward Quincy Miller was excellent in the recent loss to Missouri, as he poured in a 20 points. Quincy Acy and Pierre Jackson are both contributing just under 13.0 ppg. Acy is an exciting high-flyer who leads the team with 53 blocks. Brady Heslip is a serious threat from long range as he has knocked down 43.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc coming into this contest.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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